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When the dollar and pound hear different inflation stories
GBPUSD spent much of 2026 refusing to behave like a rate trade. With the Fed and Bank of England (BoE) operating in similar policy territory, the yield gap that usually pulls the pair in one direction has become less decisive. When the differential narrows, the pair trades on the story behind their rates rather than their level. The Fed decides on 16 September, and the Bank of England follows on 17 September, putting two reaction functions side by side within a day. A reaction function is the rule linking what a bank sees to what it does, and two banks can print similar numbers yet send opposi...
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